YOU can’t blame the weather on the climate crisis! Indeed not, but how does one tease out how much an event was due to our changing the climate and how likely would it have happened anyhow.

One phrase you’ll come across soon, if not already, is climate attribution. In plain words, it gives an estimate of how much a particular event has been intensified because of human-induced climate change. As extreme weather patterns become more frequent due to global warming, understanding these connections is vital for risk assessment, policy-making and public awareness.

Attribution science uses advanced statistical methods and climate models to analyse a specific weather event. For example, researchers might investigate whether and by how much a particular heatwave, flood or hurricane is more severe due to rising global temperatures.

The super-computer used by the Met Office in Exeter is needed.

Not surprisingly, climate attribution studies show that many recent extreme weather events are increasingly probable and intense because of human-induced climate change. Why does this matter? Knowing the attribution is essential for governments and communities because we will all have to develop strategies to mitigate climate impacts and adapt to changing conditions.

This means that the implications of climate attribution extend beyond academic interest; they directly inform disaster preparedness, insurance policies and climate action initiatives. By clearly communicating the connections between climate change and extreme weather, scientists can hopefully foster public understanding and support for necessary policy changes.

The next stage in this field of science is to use it to forecast, for a particular event, the extent to which human influence will change the pattern and intensity. For example, a heatwave can be forecast but by using this AI approach the forecast can be run with different parameters to try and predict how much more intense it is going to be due to our influences.

I’m sure the people of Asheville, North Carolina, would have liked to have had more warning as to just how destructive the hurricane was going to be so as to be able to prepare accordingly.

Article from Climate Action St Austell